Were our 2018 Financial Trend Predictions right?

Happy New Year! Here’s a reflection on our 2018 Financial Trend Predictions. Find out if what we thought would happen actually did.

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Bitcoin (Correct)

This time last year we predicted that the Bitcoin ‘bubble’ would burst in 2018 and we were right! Bitcoin started 2018 on a high at £10,871.80 on 2nd January but closed the year at just £2,892.94. This represents a massive 73% loss overall.

Interest Rates and Inflation (Correct and Correct)

As per our 2018 prediction, UK interest rates rose once in August 2018 from 0.5% to 0.75% and the rate of inflation fell to 2.51%. What will happen in 2019 will be greatly influenced by Brexit.

Bank Shares (Incorrect….but close!)

Last year we predicted that the UK banking market would continue to be challenging in 2018 and that UK focused bank shares would rally during the year. There has in fact been some good news but banks have not lost the ‘ability’ to shoot themselves in the foot.

Brexit (Correct)

As we thought, Brexit remained a buzzword in 2018 and continued to make headlines which have covered everything from ‘Our fantastic future outside of the EU’ to ‘May’s Brexit deal crashes as EU turns off life support.’ As suspected, details of the UK’s departure from the EU still remain unclear.

Donald Trump (Correct but watch this space)

As we expected, Donald Trump was not impeached in 2018 but whether or not he will be before the end of his term still remains to be seen. Doubts about whether he will serve a full term have haunted Trump ever since he took office. These have been fuelled by everything from his erratic behaviour and house investigations to the recent Mueller bombshell.

FTSE Index (Incorrect but very close!)

It has been widely reported that the FTSE 100 has suffered the worst year in over a decade, with the UK index down by 12.5%. Unfortunately, it did not go through 8,000 points in 2018 as we predicted but the highest intra-day value was 7,903.50 on 22nd May.

European Red Tape (Unconfirmed)

Last year we predicted that further Red Tape (Data Protection) would be added to the UK Statute book despite Brexit.  As part of the Withdrawal Bill, the Government will transfer over 12,000 pieces of existing EU regulation into the UK Statute Book in order to avoid creating a legal ‘blackhole’.

This leaves the UK with the possibility of heading toward a transition period from April 2019 to late 2020 where EU rules and directives will continue to be integrated. Elected MPs will then have the necessary power to change these laws. Theresa May and her Conservative Party have been called upon to pledge to a ‘bonfire’ of EU Red Tape.

Royal Milestones (Correct)

Not one but two Royal Weddings took place in 2018. These were the marriages of Princess Eugenie and Jack Brooksbank and of course Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. Meghan and Harry have since announced that they are expecting their first baby due in Spring.

Cricket (Correct)

As we already knew, Australia won the 2017-18 Ashes 4-0.

Football (Correct unfortunately :()

And finally, as we thought football didn’t come home and France won the World Cup.

Please feel free to share this article on social media and let us know what you think lies ahead in 2019. We’ll be revealing our predictions for 2019 towards the end of the month. To contact our experts please call 01244 347 583 or email us at: info@innesreid.co.uk.

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